The Tories: is the election in the bag?

This is a tale of two young, fresh-faced opposition leaders separated by over a decade. The years were 1997 and 2010. Both had sought to exorcise their party of unelectable policies, and in doing so, present themselves as tough and credible Prime Ministerial material. Both were up against governments judged to be unpopular – at times incompetent – and long past their democratic sell-by date.

As those leaders began to gee up for their respective election campaigns, both found themselves in very different opinion poll territory. Tony Blair, a young prime minister in-waiting, enjoyed a twenty-five point opinion poll lead in early March 1997. But fast-forward to March 2010 and the leader of the Conservative Party, David Cameron, presides over an opinion poll lead of around five points.

Why then, to paraphrase Cameron, is the Tory leader not ‘sealing the deal’? Hindering the Conservative campaign machine are a number of factors that re-occur time and time again.

For one, there are some media commentators who like to stoke up a little class war. Eton. Oxford. Bullingdon Club. Tony Blair may have gone to the ‘Eton of Scotland’ and the same alma mater as Cameron. However, while Blair was pictured with long hair, living the dream as a rock’n’roll guitarist, Cameron was pictured in coat tails apparently as a member of a high-society dining club at Oxford.

For some commentators, that is enough to construct the crude and perhaps unfair narrative that Cameron is out of touch. But as long as satirists and commentators continue to use it as ammunition against Cameron, then the issue of social background will continue to haunt Conservative strategists.

Another factor hindering the Conservatives is the Shadow Cabinet’s lack of media visibility. In the heady-days of spring 1997 Blair could send out big-hitters such as John Prescott, Gordon Brown, Robin Cook and Mo Mowlem to beat the drum for change. Yet today you would be hard-pressed to find many voters who could name a member of the Tory high command other than Cameron.

In part this is because of the ever-growing disillusionment voters feel towards politics. Media obsession with leaders plays a part too. No longer are they depicted as ‘first amongst equals,’ but ‘first amongst the rest’. This is a problem that the Tories will need to address in the imminent election campaign if they are serious about sealing the deal. For it is not enough for a Party to merely present a prime minister in-waiting. The electorate needs to know there is a government in-waiting, if they are to have confidence in casting that crucial vote.

There is, however, a more important reason for why Cameron has so far failed to seal the deal at a time when Blair had 13 years ago.

The world has changed. In 1997 Blair was able to make ambitious promises. New revenue was starting to slosh its way into the Treasury coffers as the economy was beginning to recover from an early 90s recession. And while prudence would only initially do at the Brown Treasury, it was clear that a public spending bonanza was on its way – once two years of fiscal restraint was up. Thus, Blair presented himself as ready to steer the ship of state towards a sunnier horizon. Cameron, by contrast, offers himself as the captain who will steer that same ship from an impending iceberg.

The state of the world economy and the public finances means Cameron can offer little in way of goodie. He is unable to promise what Blair could, because right now it is economically impossible to do so. Indeed, pay freezes, increasing the retirement age, and the current inability to commit to reversing planned increases in national insurance contributions are hardly music to the electorate’s ears.

Yet voters like to be promised sunshine – and that is what they got in 1997. A decade later, the rain is falling. Cameron and other leaders are facing up to the economic realities of 2010, and as a consequence the deal is not yet sealed.