Maths student calculates likelihood of finding girlfriend

A Warwick PhD student has taken a mathematical approach to explain why he cannot find a girlfriend.

Peter Backus, a PhD candidate and Teaching Fellow in the Department of Economics, has used the Drake Equation, an equation that predicts the possibility of alien life in the universe, to estimate the number of potential girlfriends in the UK.

In his paper, “Why I don’t have a girlfriend: An application of the Drake Equation to love in the UK”, Backus uses a series of criteria to determine to probability of finding a girlfriend in the London area.

Backus, 31, found that of the 30 million women in the UK, only 26 would be suitable girlfriends for him. His equation looked at the total number of women in the country, and then narrowed it down using relevant factors, including the number of women in London; the number of “age-appropriate” women (those aged between 24 and 34); women with a college degree; and those who Backus would find physically attractive.

Backus summarised that on a given night out in London there is a 0.0000034 percent chance of meeting a woman that meets his criteria and who is also interested in him.

That makes his odds of finding a girlfriend only about 100 times better than finding an alien.

Asked why he decided to write the paper, Backus explained how he “had not had a girlfriend for around two to three years” so thought “it would be fun and interesting to apply the equation to my problem.”

However, Backus has now defied the probabilities discovered in his paper, having had a girlfriend for about six months. “She coincidentally meets all my criteria,” he explains, “but I didn’t use my formula to find her”.