West Midlands sees rapid expansion in swine flu

Swine flu cases in the West Midlands now account for just over half the total number in England, including two Warwick University students.

As of 18 June 2009, there have been 604 cases of swine flu in the West Midlands out of 1207 in England and 1752 in­­ the United Kingdom.

The continued spread of swine flu has led the World Health Organisation to raise its threat level from five to six, indicating a “global pandemic is under way”.

The two cases of Warwick students contracting swine flu were distinct from one another. Most recently was the case of a Warwick medical student working at University Hospitals Coventry and Warwickshire. Their diagnosis has forced the closure of a ward at the hospital.

The student is not resident on campus and has not been to Warwick University during the period where they have had the virus.

According to the University, “The student was not hospitalised, they have received treatment and are now making a good recovery at home.”

The first case of swine flu occurred on campus over the exam period, where a postgraduate student contracted swine flu after returning from an infected area abroad.

The student was given the antiviral drug Tamiflu, but was not hospitalised and has since made a full recovery. Their closest contacts were also issued with the drug as a precaution.

In Birmingham the rapid spread of the virus has seen numerous school closures, and has forced health officials to declare the virus can no longer be contained. Tamiflu will now only be issued to people at high-risk of infection, like family members of an infected person.

Research at the University of Warwick itself has highlighted the potential threat swine flu poses to the United Kingdom.

Professor Alyson Warhurst of Warwick Business School and a global risks specialist has released three maps and indices designed to determine the countries most at risk from the virus.

They are based on three categories: risk of spread, risk of emergence and capacity to contain.

Of the 213 countries, the UK tops the risk of spread category due its high levels of urbanisation, busy airports, and high population density. However, it is at low risk on the capacity to contain scale because of well-placed infrastructure and stockpiled drugs.

Other research by Dr Thomas House and Professor Matt Keeling from the Department of Biological Sciences, used computer modelling to also show that the more densely populated countries are most at risk.

Where supplies of vaccine are not available for universal coverage, their research-model showed vaccinating children would be the most efficient way of containing the spread of the virus.

When asked whether the University was prepared for a possible increase in cases at the start of next year, Peter Dunn, spokesman for the University, said, “The University forms a bespoke team to lead the response to any crisis or major incident… and has obviously done so to respond to this specific issue. That team will continue to meet, act and respond to developments in this situation.”