In recent times, international affairs analysts have come to acknowledge the existence of a group of growing economies which now each constitute a major economic power. This group has been titled ‘Bric’ after its constituent nations; Brazil, Russia, India and China. And last week the nations met to discuss, among other issues, the future of the dollar as the international reserve currency and potentially what alternatives are available.
This is following concerns about the long term stability of the dollar. In times of uncertainty, the largest currencies are often the most attractive as it is these which offer the greatest stability. However, the dollar has proved volatile in the past and so the Bric countries are keen to avoid a repeat of this economic disaster by having fewer countries’ funds dependant on the value of the dollar. This issue is also being affected by American domestic economic policy as the Americans increasing their supply of money, in order to prevent deflation and to encourage lending, is ultimately going to lower the value of the dollar and thus the value of the Bric countries’ reserves, causing them to look elsewhere for stability.
This is obviously an issue of huge international tension as Russia and China’s histories of opposition to America might make this look like an attempt to undermine America out of animosity. But many of the signs tell a different story. Most noticeably, despite moving a sizeable sum of their reserves elsewhere ($95 billion), the vast majority of their reserves are still held in dollars, and the same is true of the other Bric countries.
In addition to this, China and Russia are not proposing to seize the dollar’s role as the reserve currency of choice for their own economies but have instead suggested that the IMF create an international account, affiliated no more with one country’s economy than with another’s. China’s central bank governor, Zhou Xiaochuan, in March called for a move to such an option which would be called the Special Drawing Right (SDR). Also, to show their support, the two countries have bought bonds in the IMF. However, it must be noted that the countries did not openly criticise the dollar’s role as the world’s dominant currency.
But such a move to internationally managed reserve funds would have very serious implications for the American dollar. Falling demand would cause a huge fall in its value, possibly seeing it overtaken in value by the Ruble, the Rupee and the Yuan with their strong, growing domestic demand making them attractive to private investors. This would seriously weaken America’s import market, a major issue for a country which is at the centre of globalised trade and finance. And worryingly the recent upsurge in the value of the Euro shows that investors are ready to abandon the steady dollar for new, more dynamic currencies.
Ultimately though, the end of the dollar as the currency of international trading and reserves is not going to happen overnight, if at all. What has instead been pointed out by critics is the increasing willingness of the Bric powers to work together in times of crisis as a threat to America’s empire. Arguably last week’s meeting at Yekaterinburg had more political implications than it did economic.\
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